Synopsis
– Navigate: A prospection to Nigeria’s future by 2030 by Olumayowa Okediran
There are many reasons we all want
to see how our future unfolds. Sometimes it is to pre-empt it, other times to
prepare for it. The book, Navigate: A Prospection of Nigeria’s future till
2030, is scenario planning action taken on the world’s most populous black
nation. This book is an attempt at presenting a clearer view of how Nigeria’s
future unfolds from now to 2030. What this book is not is a forecast. Forecast
tend to assume the future as a trajectory of the present. Forecasts develop a
single certain future around which a strategy must be built. There is not much
early warning that the forecast may be wrong. Scenario planning instead
understands that there are several possibilities of how the future may play
out.
Since the 1970s, organizations like
the Royal Dutch Shell and the American Military have implemented scenario
planning within their strategic planning processes. Scenario planning, largely
adapted from the American military intelligence practices helps anyone
interested in the future take a peek at plausible futures. Unfortunately,
Nigeria has so far played catch up. In Navigate, Okediran has employed the use
of scenario planning to help anyone interested in Nigeria’s future anticipate
and prepare for it.
What future do we wish to see? For us,
we want to know how Nigeria’s state structure will look like in 2030. One of
the most challenging questions people have nowadays is whether Nigeria’s centre
will continue to hold despite numerous threats that come in form of demands for
restructuring or secession. How impactful are our socio-economic situations in
the stability of our state? What trends do we need to look out for to help us
decide if Nigeria is headed for a breakup or something entirely different, an
anarchy? Our single most important question thus is; will Nigeria continue to
function as a single indivisible entity? For us to be able to view Nigeria’s
future and answer the question this book sets out to ask, we review and analyse
the trends that has been occurring in Nigeria in the political, social and
economic spheres. This book presents four likely futures that Nigerians would
have encountered by 2030.
Full
Course scenario: Nigeria enjoys political stability and transitions between
the leading parties at elections have been smooth. The government has made
progress in addressing corruption, and the rule of law has strengthened. The
country has successfully diversified the economy and continued to improve on
the Ease of Doing Business. Freedom of speech remains a mainstay and citizens are
more willing to participate in electoral processes and governance.
The
Buffet scenario: Nigeria’s steady
growth was not enough to quench the calls for restructuring and secession. The
Federal government was unsuccessful in stopping the rise of rebel groups.
Although these rebel groups acted independently, the unrests caused by their
agitations and the country’s stuttering economic growth led to several
political leaders calling for a re-examination of the statehood of Nigeria.
However, rather than watch the state disintegrate into mindless conflict, the
government began the process towards the decentralization of power leading to
the restructuring of Nigeria. This decentralization ensured that states became
more independent.
Empty
Dish scenario: Despite the Federal government’s struggle to keep the
country together, secession has finally occurred. Nigeria has broken into
independent countries. Eastern secessionist groups had risen and united under a
new leadership and had garnered some political support. This eventually led to
multiple secession across the country due to the high level of vitriol
generated by the secessionist protests in Eastern regions.
Broken
China scenario: The government had been able to manage the insurgency and
has a stronghold of the state. The federal structure remains, but things have
worsened so much Nigerians are anticipating a revolution. Civil societies have
increased in multiple folds as citizens continue to mount pressure on the
government. Several reforms that were introduced by the government have failed.
The economy has entered a relapse and diversification efforts have barely taken
off the ground.
Praise
for Navigate
“It is an early attempt to put observers’
feet firmly on the ground and give them an informed sense of what to expect of
Nigeria over the next decade and a bit. Considering, again, the scale of the challenge,
Okediran introduces the reader to a very useful series of indicators and trends
that will certainly provide those not intimately briefed on the country with
some of the hard data and information necessary to start developing an informed
view”. - Dr Frans Cronje, Director,
Centre for Risk Analysis, South Africa and Author of A time Traveller’s Guide to South Africa
“No one can safely predict the future but
one can make out some of it from today’s realities. Olumayowa has applied his
expertise and experience with some of the world’s top scenario planning
organizations to deliver what is certain to be one of the most realistic
projections of Nigeria to 2030. Nigeria, in this book, has got a peek into what
could come and what can be stopped from happening even before the year 2030. - Japheth Omojuwa, Chief Strategist, The
Alpha Reach
“There is no better time in the history
of Nigeria to bring up the need for better foresight, scenarios analysis and
forward thinking into the discourses and analyses of the multifarious problems
confronting the country – plus their possible solutions – than now. … What
Olumayowa has done with this book is to ignite the flame of that vital
discourse, of the search for solutions that will explore the alternative future
pathways for Nigeria, and will eventually zero in on the most desirable
future(s) and work towards getting to such future(s). …I hope those with
interests in Nigerian governance can read this book – especially young and
middle aged Nigerians who are already coming into their own in the political
arena” - Oluwabunmi Ajilore,
Foresight Advisor, Global Forum on Agricultural Research (GFAR), Food and
Agricultural Organization of the United Nations
“Olumayowa Okediran, through this book,
is adhering to the well-defined aphorism of the elders that hindsight is the
lens through which we view the future. By digging deep into Nigeria’s political
and economic past, which doesn’t often make for pretty reading, Okediran tempers
the science of futurism with the many peculiarities of the Nigerian state. Many
questions arise from this seminal contribution: “Is there indeed a future in
which the various nations within the geographic entity called Nigeria are able
to coexist peacefully and advance a common economic agenda?” “Is there a future
for Nigeria post-oil?” “Are the agitations of secessionist groups within the
country symptomatic of economic discomfort or
vestiges of colonial machinations?” Above
all else, “What role will the current generation of Nigerian youth play in
defining the country’s future over the next decade?” The time is ticking for
Nigeria to get it right.” - Faith
Abiodun, Executive Director, Future Africa
Navigate: A Prospection of Nigeria’s
Future to 2030, is a welcome effort in redirecting Nigeria’s path to structured
planning and forecasting of the future it desires. Hopefully, current and
future leaders will embrace the value of planning and the diligence to sustain
progress for the benefit of the citizens”. - Ibrahim Sanusi, Deputy Head, Africa Governance Architecture
Secretariat, African Union Commission
“Exciting panorama of Nigeria's past; how
we got here and 'where the rain started to beat us'. ...Written with patriotic
zest and intellectual candor, Navigate: A Prospection of Nigeria's Future to
2030 gives me joy that our youth are not sleeping after all.” - Tunde Fagbenle, Author, Nigeria: This
is my country, damn it!
About
the author:
Olumayowa Okediran is the Managing
Director of AfricanLiberty.org, a founding partner at the War Room Associates
and the West Africa Policy Fellow at South Africa's top political and economic
think-tank, the South African Institute of Race Relations. He also serves as
the Assistant Director of International Programs at Students For Liberty. His
views on politics and economics have been translated into 16 languages
including French, Spanish, Czech, Portuguese, Serbian, Macedonian, Greek, Khmer
and Vietnamese and he frequently gives lectures at seminars around the world.
Okediran completed a Masters in Humanitarian and Refugee Studies at the
University of Ibadan and holds professional certification in Financial
Journalism from the Gordon Institute of Business Science and in Foresight from
the University of Houston.
